My good friend and reader of the blog, @sk8hrd, decided to put his big brain to good use this week in hopes of making sense of the NHL supplementary discipline process. (It sure beats thinking about how his Sharks are doing.) He emailed me the following information on Friday, April 20th and I asked if he’d be willing to let me share it on the blog because I think he’s really onto something here.
So far in the playoffs, there have been a number of inexplicable suspensions. Being a Math geek, I figured I would try and help explain this using the following formula:
Player Star Power: This is a multiplier that is used to help assess how valuable the player is to the team and thus to the league. For the most part, their star power is linked directly to their salary. Star power can be calculated using 1/3rd of their salary in millions. So a player making $6M will have a star power of 2.
Goalie star power: As goalies are more valuable. All star goalie’s receive a star power of 2. Vezina/Conn Smythe candidates have a star power of 3.
The rookie rule: Since rookies can’t make nearly as much money as veterans, their star power is relative to their proximity to the line they are skating on inverted divided by 2. A player who skates the first line, has a star power of 2. A player who is on the 4th line has a star power of 1/2.
The Russian Discount: All Russian players receive a 25% discount on their star power.
European Discount: All European players receive a 10% discount on their star power
The Alex Ovechkin rule: AO’s star power is 1/2 of any other player is caliber as they like to make an example of him.
Previous offender rule: add 30% for second offense, 75% for the third offense and 2x for future offenses.
All suspensions start with a base of 1 game. If the player has an injury, that doubles the suspension. If the injury is significant then the base goes to 3. If injury is discussed on ESPN, then the star power of the player inflicting the injury is negated.
All playoff suspensions are 1/2 of the original suspension.
The offending player receives an inverse of their star power to offset the injury itself.
So the formula looks like this:
# of games * Star Power * (1/Offending player star power) * Playoffs = Suspension
Let’s put this in practice-
Carl Hagelin’s hit on Alfredsson:
Injury involved: 2 games
Alfredsson’s star power: 2.5
Hagelin’s star power: 1
2 * 2.5 * 1* 0.5= 2.5 games. Round that up to 3 games which is what he got.
Shea Weber’s hit on Zetterberg:
No injury: 1 game
Shea Weber star power: 4
Zetterberg star power: 3
European Discount on Zetterberg: 10%
This gives: 1* (3*.90) * 1/4 * 0.5 = 0.3375
Since this is less than 1 game, a fine of $2500 makes sense.
Shaw hit on Mike Smith:
Injury: perceived but not confirmed: 1.5
Shaw is a rookie 3rd liner: 0.75
Mike Smith has a potential to win the Conn Smythe: 3
1.5 * 3 * (1/0.75) * 0.5 = 3
Shaw was suspended for 3 games.
Torres hit on Marian Hossa:
Significant Injury: 3
Hossa Star Power: 1.6
Torres Star Power: 0.6
Repeat offender: 2x
1.6 * (1/0.6) * 2 * 3 * 0.5 = 8 games
Something I should mention is Hossa is making 7.9M this season so his
star power may be as high as 2.6 which would put the suspension up to
13 games. Averaging them out you can expect around 10 games.
@sk8hrd’s mathematical formula predicted about 10 games for Torres. That’s about what I predicted and was hoping for.
So 25 games completely blows the math right?
Not so fast.
The key factor here is the playoff game ratio. If this hit happened during the regular season, would it have merited 50 games?!? No way. So lets remove the playoff factor.
2.6 * (1/0.6) * 2 * 3 *= 26 games